Predictions for My 27th Year

A list of probabilities of things that might happen prior to 21 Apr 2022

I recently announced an incoming list of predictions similar to the ones that Scott Alexander does. This is that list. What follows is a series of predictions with probabilities. These are my personal predictions and are not representative of my employer, friends, family, etc.

Shortly after my 27th birthday (Apr 2022), I plan to score these predictions, assess my own overall performance, and create a new list of predictions covering 2022-23.

I will take bets on any of these predictions. Unless, upon further reflection, I realize I totally don’t know what I was thinking, I’m willing to bet a healthy amount—not just, like, $5.

Here is the list of 65 predictions. Some are redacted because they related to family, friends, work, etc.

US Politics / Culture

  1. Yang becomes mayor of NYC: 80%

  2. City of Austin, Texas passes proposition B: 60%

  3. At least one major US city fails to fully reopen1 schools: 95%

  4. … at least two: 90%

  5. … at least five: 70%

  6. At least one other major tech company announces no more politics-at-work: 90%

  7. … at least one FAANG company does this: 10%

  8. NYC rents remain at least 10% lower than early 2020 levels: 80%

  9. Social expectation to wear masks broadly doesn’t go away in NYC: 70%

  10. … in LA: 50%

  11. … in Texas: 30%

Rest of World

  1. UK reopens by end of Q2 2021: 90%

  2. … and doesn’t close again: 80%

  3. No major new COVID strain escapes mRNA vaccines: 90%

  4. Putin still in charge of Russia: 90%

  5. There is reasonable suspicion that Aleksei Navalny has been killed: 70%

  6. … and he is actually killed: 40%

  7. Hong Kong is still politically distinguishable from China but with notable decline relative to right now: 90%

  8. India’s COVID outcomes generally believed to be the worst in the northern hemisphere: 80%

  9. There is a broadly effective COVID vaccine distribution to the Global South from western nations: 30%

  10. The global news cycle generally stops being about COVID: 70%

Economics / Business

  1. BTC above $70k: 30%

  2. BTC above $100k: 5%

  3. ETH above $5k: 60%

  4. ETH above $10k: 20%

  5. ETH percent return-on-investment higher than BTC throughout the period: 90%

  6. Legislation such as the STABLE Act passes and ruins stablecoins for everyone: 10%

  7. No broadly successful fully algorithmic stablecoin: 70%

  8. DAI still dominant stablecoin among coins backed by on-chain assets: 90%

  9. Binance Smart Chain fizzles out: 70%

  10. Coinbase still dominant in US crypto retail market: 80%

  11. GridPlus Lattice1 achieves 1% hardware wallet market share: 30%

  12. … 5% market share: 1%

  13. ETH outperforms traditional stock market: 80%

Personal

  1. [redacted]: 80%

  2. [redacted]: 70%

  3. [redacted]: 70%

  4. [redacted]: 90%

  5. [redacted]: 50%

  6. [redacted]: 90%

  7. [redacted]: 70%

  8. [redacted]: 80%

  9. I still live in Austin, TX: 95%

  10. I decide not to renew my WeWork office space: 90%

  11. I buy at least one new Apple product valued above $200: 10%

  12. I buy at least one new Google product valued above $200: 80%

  13. [redacted]: 90%

  14. [redacted]: 80%

  15. [redacted]: 80%

  16. [redacted]: 80%

  17. … [redacted]: 40%

  18. At least half of my investments are in the traditional stock market: 95%

  19. … at least 2/3: 90%

  20. … substantially all: 80%

  21. I take five or fewer trips out of state: 80%

  22. … three or fewer: 60%

Work

  1. I still work at my current job: 95%

  2. … with no plans to leave anytime soon: 90%

  3. … [redacted]: 60%

  4. [redacted]: 40%

  5. I perform contract work of any kind: 10%

  6. … for which I am paid in crypto: 1%

  7. I hire a personal assistant: 20%

Writing

  1. I still write this newsletter on the same schedule: 90%

  2. I introduce a paid subscription tier: 1%

1

“Fully reopen” meaning: everyone or nearly everyone in-person, no social distancing.